NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary: a battle for the fate of New York on polymarket

NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary: a battle for the fate of New York on polymarket

New York City isn’t just sweltering from the summer heat, it’s also home to one of the most intense political prediction markets of 2025. On Polymarket, the question “Who will win the Democratic nomination for NYC Mayor?” has captured the attention of thousands of traders, and millions of dollars in trading volume.

At the heart of this political face-off are two figures: Zohran Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo, and the market changed dramatically between them in recent weeks.

Cuomo’s Early Dominance and the Mamdani Surge

For the majority of the race, Andrew Cuomo appeared to be the inevitable nominee. Backed by name recognition, deep political roots, and early polling strength, he maintained a commanding lead in the market. On Polymarket, his odds reached nearly 80%, holding steady well into early June.

But in the days leading up to the election, the winds shifted. A new poll showing strong momentum for Zohran Mamdani caused a rapid and stunning market reversal. Within a few days, Mamdani’s price shot past Cuomo’s, climbing to over 55%, while Cuomo dropped sharply to around 45%.

On the Cuomo side, donda has taken a legendary position, accumulating over 900,000 YES shares, a position worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. His confidence in Cuomo hasn’t wavered, even as the market turned sharply against him. It’s one of the largest single bets in recent Polymarket history.

Backing Mamdani is GayPride, another high-profile trader with a strong track record in electoral markets. With 268,000 YES shares, he’s leading the charge alongside names like Nicoks, SaylorMoon, and WhiteLivesMatter, all of whom have placed major positions on Mamdani’s side.

Meanwhile, traders like aenews are hedging, holding positions both for and against Mamdani, signaling uncertainty and a preference for risk control rather than directional conviction.

What Makes This Market So Unique?

With more than $43 million in volume, this has become one of the largest U.S. political markets ever seen on Polymarket, and it stands out for a few reasons:

• The volatility: Few markets have reversed this dramatically so close to the vote.
• The capital involved: Whale-sized bets have made this a battle not just of ideas, but of wallets.
• The timing: With the final vote count expected by July 1, tension is peaking fast.

Tips for Traders Still in the Market

If you’re still trading this market or thinking of entering, here are a few key points to keep in mind:

1. Question the polls: Especially in primary elections, polls are often unreliable, low-sample, and poorly modeled. Never treat them as certainties.
2. Verify your sources: Stick to official election data, reputable political journalists, and reliable polling firms. Avoid hype and viral rumors.
3. Don’t trade your bias: Just because you prefer a candidate doesn’t mean they’ll win. Objective analysis beats personal attachment every time.
4. Watch wallet movements: Track how large accounts are moving sudden shifts in whale positions often hint at unseen data or changing sentiment.

Until the final ballots are counted, nothing is guaranteed. Both candidates have paths to victory, and the Polymarket odds are still fluctuating with every new development, poll, and media cycle.

In a contest that has already defied expectations, one thing is certain:

The winner of this race won’t just be a candidate it might also be a trader.

As New York decides its next Democratic mayoral nominee, Polymarket traders are living the election minute by minute, turning every headline into a chance to win or lose big 🙂