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Bolivia Election 2025 on polymarket: Second Round Heats Up as Traders Turn to Rodrigo Paz vs. Jorge Quiroga

Bolivia Election 2025 on polymarket: Second Round Heats Up as Traders Turn to Rodrigo Paz vs. Jorge Quiroga

Polymarket traders are once again diving into the heart of Latin American politics, as Bolivia’s presidential election enters its dramatic second round, scheduled for October 19, 2025. After a volatile first round full of surprises, the stage is now set for a head-to-head clash between Rodrigo Paz Pereira and Jorge Quiroga.

But before looking ahead, let’s quickly recap what just happened.

First Round Recap: The Biggest Polling Miss in Years

The real shock came from Rodrigo Paz Pereira, who surged from a mere 7 percent in pre-election polls to winning over 32 percent of the vote a jump that stunned analysts and traders alike.

It may go down as one of the most significant polling errors in Bolivia’s electoral history.

As momentum shifted in real time, savvy users on Polymarket capitalized on the volatility, capturing value during the surge. Paz’s unexpected rise has now made him a serious contender if not the frontrunner going into the runoff.

As can be seen from the polls, they were completely wrong compared to the final results, failing to predict PAZ’s victory in the first round

First Round Poll

Jorge Quiroga, a more traditional political figure, finished second and now enters the final round with institutional experience on his side, but less of the buzz that energized Paz’s campaign.

Who are the Candidates ?

  • Rodrigo Paz Pereira, The ultimate political outsider, Paz is a former mayor of Tarija and the son of a former president, but ran this time as a reformist unaligned with traditional power structures. His campaign has emphasized anti-corruption, regional inclusion, and a fresh alternative to the old political elite.
  • Jorge Quiroga, a well-known name in Bolivian politics, Quiroga briefly served as president in the early 2000s and remains a prominent conservative voice. Backed by more traditional parties and networks, he represents stability and continuity, but may struggle to capture the momentum and grassroots energy Paz has built.
Rodrigo Paz Holders

Many well-known Polymarket users have already taken positions in favor of Paz, placing substantial bets exceeding $50,000, like Gopfan2

Some useful advice for this crazy election

  1. Watch the Endorsements
    The second round will be heavily shaped by which candidates receive endorsements from eliminated first-round contenders and party leaders.
  2. Be Skeptical of Polling
    After the historic polling miss in the first round, don’t blindly trust the numbers. Instead, look for localized polling or trend-based data with transparent methodology.
  3. Diversify
    This is a high-volatility environment. Don’t overcommit too early. Keep dry powder for potential swings.
  4. Track Local Media & Sentiment
    Local Bolivian outlets often report faster and more accurately than international press, also look Facebook

Conclusion: Bolivia’s Hottest Election of the Summer

No matter the outcome, Bolivia’s 2025 presidential race has become one of the hottest political events of the summer on Polymarket. With high stakes, unpredictable twists, and outsider momentum versus establishment experience, the runoff between Paz and Quiroga is shaping up to be a classic.

Disclaimer:
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Trading on prediction markets like Polymarket carries inherent risks, including potential loss of capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making financial decisions.

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