Market Type: Guaranteed Markets
Overview:
Guaranteed markets are a rare but powerful phenomenon on Polymarket. They are defined by an extremely high certainty of outcome, often reaching virtual certainty—up to 99.9999%. Unlike “bond markets,” which rely on low perceived probability, guaranteed markets are based on absolute clarity: the correct resolution is already known or logically unavoidable.
There are three primary ways in which a market becomes ‘guaranteed’:
- Event Certainty:
When the underlying event of a market has definitively occurred (or not occurred) within the required time window, the market becomes guaranteed. For example, if a market asks “Will Trump say the word ‘freedom’ in April?” and Trump is documented saying it, then the market instantly becomes guaranteed to resolve as Yes. Once traders become aware of this, they typically remove their orders from the orderbook to avoid giving away free value. - Logical Consistency (Cross-Market Guarantee):
Sometimes, multiple markets share identical or highly overlapping resolution criteria. If one of them resolves in a specific way, consistency within Polymarket governance or UMA logic guarantees the same resolution for the others.
For example:- “Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April?”
- “Which countries will Trump reduce tariffs on before June?”
If the second market resolves Yes, the first—assuming overlapping timelines and conditions—becomes a guaranteed Yes as well. These cases often arise from temporal offsets or oversight by traders who miss the connection.
- UMA Resolution Impact:
A third pathway occurs when UMA votes decisively on a market outcome. Once a vote passes and aligns with one side, it becomes virtually impossible for a related or identical market to resolve differently without violating platform governance. This UMA outcome thus “guarantees” resolution consistency across structurally similar markets.
Guaranteed markets are extremely rare and short-lived, as informed users act quickly—removing liquidity and exploiting inefficiencies before others can react. Identifying them early requires not just speed, but deep attention to resolution criteria, governance history, and inter-market dependencies.
Please note: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not represent financial advice or an invitation to trade, and should be understood solely as a divulgative overview of a specific market type within Polymarket.