The 2025 Papal Conclave was one of the most followed and debated events of the year on Polymarket, with thousands of traders placing bets on who would succeed Pope Francis. But among all the positions taken, the one that truly stood out and made history was that of LinaBell, who pulled off a remarkable win by backing a heavily undervalued candidate.
A textbook win: logic, instinct, and a bit of luck
LinaBell, already known for his analytical and thoughtful approach, secured one of the most emblematic victories in recent prediction market history, turning a 1¢ position into a masterstroke. Shortly after his win, he gave an exclusive mini-interview to Polynoob, where he shared:
“I never at one point was like I’m 100% sure he wins. I pretty rapidly thought that people are way too overconfident and there’s tons of red herrings, so the top people were likely overvalued.”
In his view, LinaBell avoided the herd mentality and identified Cardinal Prevost as an overlooked contender.
He believed many of the reasons why the Canadian cardinal was trading so low were simply not relevant:
- The fact that he was American was a classic red herring, statistically misleading.
- The abuse allegations within the Church, if widespread among many candidates, lose weight as a disqualifier.
- On top of that, Prevost had real advantages: his status as a cardinal bishop, his leadership experience across North and South America and Europe, and an expansive, international network.
“To summarize, I thought he should have been a higher ranked candidate, not 1c. So there was a ton of luck involved.”
🎉 The Polymarket community celebrates
When the market resolved, joy erupted across the Polymarket community. Many users had followed the debate closely and were thrilled to see a trader defy the odds and win big through a mix of conviction and insight. LinaBell’s win quickly became a point of celebration, with praise and congratulations pouring in across Discord and social platforms.
His success resonated deeply with other users, it is not just for the payout, but for what it represented: the power of logic, patience, and a well timed bet.
🧠 The true spirit of Polymarket
LinaBell’s win perfectly embodies the spirit of Polymarket: a balance of logic, instinct, and luck. It’s proof that even from a disadvantaged position, extraordinary results are possible when you think critically and dare to challenge market consensus.
“In the end, what matters is trying and believing in your call, because on Polymarket, we shape the future.”
🏆 A result that enters prediction market history
His victory will go down as part of the lore of the prediction markets, one of the clearest examples of how a well reasoned, unconventional bet can overturn expectations.
And if the future of prediction markets truly lies in the hands of the users, LinaBell has just raised the bar for everyone.
Polymarket Pope Prediction Market: Why the Conclave Is Unlike Any Other Vote. Polymarket
Index