Alphax on Polymarket the strength of the community
What really makes Polymarket truly unique? Well, if you asked to Alphax, he would probably answer also this: “Polymarket community”
Polynoob had the honor of interviewing him, here’s his story:
The Polymarket Crypto Discovery
Alphax’s story begins within the crypto community, driven by the search for new opportunities and ultimately landing on Polymarket
“I’m a crypto degen, Polymarket was always known,” he explains. “First clicked 2 years ago, been using odds (recession, fed, election etc) for positions.”
Unlike many who stumble upon Polymarket by accident, Alphax had been aware of the platform for years, using it strategically for his crypto positions; But awareness and active participation are two different things.
The Search for a Real Hedge
What pushed Alphax from casual observer to active trader was a problem familiar to anyone in crypto: correlation risk
“In tradfi everything crashes together when shit hits the fan, stocks, BTC, alts all bleed,” he reflects
“I was looking for a real hedge and got the idea: borrow against my BTC for 4%, if I outperform the 4% on Poly I’m profitable.”
A Journey Worth More Than Money
When asked about his Polymarket journey, Alphax’s response reveals something deeper than profit and loss.
“I lost money on crypto & Poly but I’d rather lose on Poly always cuz lessons hit different & worth way more than the bag lost,” he says.
“Poly ain’t just a market like crypto, Poly is every market, you can trade literally ANYTHING, infinite ways.”
His philosophy is captured in a simple motto:
“Try some shit, learn some shit, try new shit.”
This mindset, embracing experimentation and learning over perfection, explains both his losses and his resilience.
“Zero regrets trading Poly, I’m sure my PNL turns green, just a matter of time”
The MSTR Insider Trap
The MSTR loss wasn’t just bad luck or poor analysis. It was Alphax’s brutal introduction to “insider trading” (Although there is no final evidence, the facts surrounding MSTR’s market activity are known within the community as “insider trading“)
The setup seemed perfect, he was already under massive pressure, holding the largest YES position on the Ukraine ceasefire market, eventually losing $50k.
“Checking news 24/7, overthinking every headline, it fucked my head.”
Then he saw the MSTR market as his chance to recover. The question: Would Michael Saylor announce a Bitcoin purchase on a holiday?
“Grok told me <1% chance Saylor announces a BTC buy on a holiday, with solid reasoning. Poly odds were sitting at 60%.”
He researched for over an hour, discovered that historically Saylor always waits until the next trading day, and grew increasingly confident.
“Didn’t know insiders existed back then.”
First order: $50k NO at 65¢.
Then the price started dumping, and his crypto instincts went to full crazy mode!:
“Buy the dip mentality.” He kept averaging down until he was sitting on 230,000 NO shares.
The insider knew what Alphax didn’t: the announcement was coming.
Total damage: $200k, including the MSTR loss and another insider-rigged Israel strikes Iran market 🙁
The Day Everything Melted: $130K in Seconds
Some losses hurt; others leave scars. For Alphax, the MSTR trade belonged to the second kind.
“Remember that day crystal clear, -130k on MSTR, one trade. Balance melted 130k in seconds, unreal. Went dark a week.”
The psychological impact was devastating, made worse by his personal circumstances:
“I’m young, live alone, barely have friends. When you got no real social life, the only thing that keeps you happy is your successes. That’s why the losses hit completely different.”
But in that dark week, the Polymarket community (including Polynoob) changed everything, showing a unique level of support for him:
comments like these: ‘alphax you alive?‘ ‘pls talk with us‘ ‘be strong u gonna make it back‘ these comments kept me breathing.”
This shows that not everything is always PVP on Polymakret, and that there is also room for a moment of reflection and support for those who, at that moment, were not traders but people who needed support
His response after this loss?
“I Sat down, dissected every mistake, doubled gym, doubled grind. Hardwork always helped, even during heartbreak.”
The Lesson That Cost $1M (For Someone Else)
The painful irony? Alphax watched history repeat itself with another trader, 2eyes, who lost $1M in the exact same MSTR market
“Exactly the same thing just happened to 2eyes. I warned him. Hurts like hell watching him lose 1M in the exact market I bled in.”
His reflection is sobering:
“Lesson costs money. Mine cost 200k. His cost 1M. Don’t let yours cost more.”
The Price of Freedom ?: Insiders on Polymarket
When asked about insiders and Polymarket, Alphax doesn’t dodge the question.
“I got rekt 200k by insiders (MSTR & Israel strikes Iran).”
But he also understands the philosophical tradeoff:
“Many of us, including me, stand for anonymity and freedom, so we have to pay the price that insiders like AlphaRaccoon exist.”
It’s a brutal calculus; the same anonymity that protects users also enables bad actors. Alphax has chosen to accept this reality rather than abandon the platform.
The Jim Cramer of Polymarket ?
In the Polymarket community, Alphax has earned a unique reputation: he’s known as the “Jim Cramer of Polymarket,” the insider/jinx indicator.
“They call me the insider/Jinx indicator. They dumped their bags the moment I joined their side. It’s funny as hell, I’m a total meme fan.”
Alphax’s positions have become something traders watch, sometimes to do the opposite.
But beyond the meme status, Alphax found something rare in the Polymarket community: genuine support without envy.
“Zero envy, everyone celebrates wins,” he explains. He recalls a shutdown market where he was on NO at 6¢ while YES holders had an average entry of 94¢.
“They got pranked cuz the website wasn’t updated so I was literally rooting for Y to win cuz their loss would’ve been brutal. That’s the vibe.”
He compares it to social media platforms:
“It’s like the difference between Instagram and X: If you post that you’ve won 100k, on Insta you will get envy, on X people will celebrate you/cheer for you.”
The Future: Student Turned Full-Time Trader
Alphax is young, still a student, but his path is clear:
“Working for someone else is not an option for me, so I have to build something and doing what I love (trading on Poly).”
His vision for Polymarket is equally ambitious:
“Poly will be bigger than all global sportsbook industry combined, straight up.”
Why? he reply:
“Median news media tells you what happened in the past (twisted to fit their agenda). Poly tells you what’s gonna happen in the future (unscripted, no filter)”
Hard-Earned Advice for Future Traders
Alphax’s advice comes from $200k+ in tuition to the school of hard knocks:
General Trading Rules:
- Set a strict limit on how much you bet per trade, keep it low at the start (no matter how deep you researched)
- Reading and understanding the rules often reveals they say exactly the opposite of the title
- Watch out with bonds, it’s not rare to see them jump from 0.1 cents to 99.9 cents
- Discuss on Discord before purchasing
- Don’t use AI chat for bet!
Tips to Spot Insiders:
- New accounts buying aggressively with zero fucks about avg entry price
- Accounts that only bet on one specific market over and over and keep winning every time → could be insiders
- Follow alphaxonP on X, lol
The Deeper Lesson about: Alphax on Polymarket the strength of the community
Alphax’s journey is a masterclass in resilience, he’s lost $200k+ to insider trading, he’s watched others repeat his mistakes at even greater cost.
But he’s still here, still learning
“I’d rather lose on Poly always cuz lessons hit different & worth way more than the bag lost.”
This isn’t toxic positivity or copium; It’s the philosophy of someone who understands that in markets, as in life, the education is priceless.
However, Polynoob would like to remind everyone that Alphax’s path should not be imitated. It is often common and wise to reflect and perhaps devote oneself to other things after such events. Alphax has moved on, and his story shows how, even in the face of such really sad events, the Polymaket community provides some support, with also Polynoob
From crypto man to the “Jim Cramer of Polymarket,” from -$130k to community legend, Alphax’s story is still being written, the PNL may not be green yet, but as he says:
“Just a matter of time”
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